Application of ARIMA model in prediction of mortality rate of suicide in Hainan province / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To analyze the trend of suicide mortality in residents of Hainan province,and explore the application of time sequence model in the prediction of the mortality of suicide.Methods The mortality data of suicide in residents of Hainan province between January,2014 and December,2016 were collected and analyzed with time sequence model and the mortality rate of suicide during January-June,2017 in Hainan was predicted with the model.Results During January,2014 to June 2017,a total of 576 suicide cases were reported in Hainan,the mortality rate was 1.5/100 000.The established ARIMA model had good fitting for the suicide mortality in previous times and the prediction result was quite similar to the actual mortality,the predicted mortality rate was within the 95％ confidence interval of the actual rate.Conclusion The time sequence model for the prediction of suicide mortality in Hainan was "ARIMA (0,1,0) (0,0,0) 12",and the prediction effect of the model was better,which can be used to predict the suicide mortality in Hainan.

Application of ARIMA model in prediction of mortality rate of suicide in Hainan province / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To analyze the trend of suicide mortality in residents of Hainan province,and explore the application of time sequence model in the prediction of the mortality of suicide.Methods The mortality data of suicide in residents of Hainan province between January,2014 and December,2016 were collected and analyzed with time sequence model and the mortality rate of suicide during January-June,2017 in Hainan was predicted with the model.Results During January,2014 to June 2017,a total of 576 suicide cases were reported in Hainan,the mortality rate was 1.5/100 000.The established ARIMA model had good fitting for the suicide mortality in previous times and the prediction result was quite similar to the actual mortality,the predicted mortality rate was within the 95％ confidence interval of the actual rate.Conclusion The time sequence model for the prediction of suicide mortality in Hainan was "ARIMA (0,1,0) (0,0,0) 12",and the prediction effect of the model was better,which can be used to predict the suicide mortality in Hainan.

Study on the polymorphism in circumsporozoite protein of Plasmodium vivax before the completion on elimination program of malaria, in Hainan province / 中华流行病学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To explore the polymorphism in circumsporozoite protein of Plasmodium vivax before malaria was eliminated in Hainan island.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>PCR amplification, sequencing, and alignment methodologies were conducted and phylogenetic tree constructed.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>From all the cases, 19 of them belonged to two types, with 18 as VK210 type and 1 as VK247 type. VK210 type could be divided into seven kinds of subtypes but VK247 had only one type. Ratio of tropical strain with temperate stain in VK210 type was explored between the two stages:control or elimination. Phylogenetic tree was constructed by amino acid sequencing which clearly manifested that VK210 type and VK247 type belonged to different clusters.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Compared the proportion of two types in the control stage, there was no significant difference seen in the stage of elimination.</p>

A Case of Plasmodium ovale wallikeri Infection in a Chinese Worker Returning from West Africa

In contrast to the gradual reduction in the number of locally transmitted malaria cases in China, the number of imported malaria cases has been increasing since 2008. Here, we report a case of a 39-year-old Chinese man who acquired Plasmodium ovale wallikeri infection while staying in Ghana, West Africa for 6 months in 2012. Microscopic examinations of Giemsa-stained thin and thick blood smears indicated Plasmodium vivax infection. However, the results of rapid diagnostic tests, which were conducted 3 times, were not in agreement with P. vivax. To further check the diagnosis, standard PCR analysis of the small-subunit rRNA gene was conducted, based on which a phylogeny tree was constructed. The results of gene sequencing indicated that this malaria is a variant of P. ovale (P. ovale wallikeri). The infection in this patient was not a new infection, but a relapse of the infection from the one that he had contracted in West Africa.

Epidemic status of Angiostrongylus cantonensis in Hainan island, China

OBJECTIVE@#To understand the current epidemiological status of Angiostrongylus cantonensis in Hainan island and provide the scientific evidences for prevention and control of the disease.@*METHODS@#The investigation on nature infection condition of intermediate hosts and final hosts of Angiostrongylus cantonensis were carried out in five counties, Hainan Province, and enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was employed to detect antibodies of Angiostrongylus cantonensis in human hosts.@*RESULTS@#A total of 1612 molluscs were examined, 21.3% of which harbored L3 of Angiostrongylus cantonensis. Among them, the infection rates of Pomacea canaliculata, Achatina fulica, Cepaea and Phlegm bilineatus were 12.36%(64/518), 22.66%(121/534), 20.93%(9/43), and 28.24%(146/517), respectively. Of the 118 rats trapped, 13 Rattus norvegicus were found to be infected with Angiostrongylus cantonensis. A total of 459 serum samples were collected and tested. 92 serum samples were Angiostrongylus cantonensis antibody-positive.@*CONCLUSIONS@#The survey revealed a wide distribution of Angiostrongylus cantonensis in Hainan island. Pomacea canaliculata and Achatina fulica are main intermediate hosts of Angiostrongylus cantonensis. Rattus novegicus is a nature definitive host, indicating that a considerable number of people are at risk of angiostrongyliasis. Health education, rigorous food inspection and surveillance are all needed to prevent angiostrongyliasis outbreaks in future.